by John Wall
In cricket you not only have to win but also beat the opposition.
The teams walk out, one is such a hot favourite that when they win the toss and decide to bat many think it’s all over. The ball is hit all around the ground and the score mounts. There is a declaration and the other side bats. Things continue badly, they’re quickly skittled out and the follow-on enforced. Then the pendulum swings the other way, batsmen get dug in and the match is drawn.
Despite a large number of runs and some very good individual performances it’s remembered as an inconclusive stalemate, the captain is blamed and replaced – sound familiar?
This is the vote achieved by the first party in the last ten general elections:
Major (1992): 14,093,007
Thatcher (1987): 13,760,935
Thatcher (1979): 13,697,923
May (2017): 13,636,690
Blair (1997): 13,518,167
Thatcher (1983): 13,012,316
Cameron (2015): 11,299,959
Blair (2001): 10,724,953
Cameron (2010): 10,703,754
Blair (2005): 9,552,436
This is the percentage share:
Thatcher (1979): 43.9%
Blair (1997): 43.2%
Thatcher (1983): 42.4%
May (2017): 42.3%
Thatcher (1987): 42.2%
Major (1992): 41.9%
Blair (2001): 40.7%
Cameron (2015): 36.8%
Cameron (2010): 36.1%
Blair (2005): 35.2%
This isn’t rejection of May and her manifesto, she increased the Conservative vote by 2.3 million and 5.5%, and also got 56 more seats than Corbyn.
May’s problem – back to cricket – is that although she “won”, she didn’t “beat” the opposition sufficiently as can be seen by looking at second party percentage shares:
Corbyn (2017): 40.0%
Callaghan (1979): 36,9%
Kinnock (1992): 34.4%
Howard (2005): 32.4%
Hague (2001): 31.7%
Kinnock (1987): 30.8%
Major (1997): 30.7%
Miliband (2015): 30.4%
Brown (2010): 29.0%
Foot (1983): 27.6%
This was largely because the minor parties were squeezed. In 2015 they secured about a third of the vote, but only a sixth in 2017. About 2/3 transferred to Labour and 1/3 to the Conservatives. There was also an age divide, the young voted Labour and the old Conservative.
2017 can’t be compared with 2010 as Cameron was on the way up and converted opposition into a hung parliament, May converted a majority into a hung parliament.
If Sir Humphrey was asked whether May won he’d probably answer “Yes – and no!”
The campaigns largely passed each other by, May mostly campaigned on Brexit, Corbyn on domestic issues. Brexit was difficult for Corbyn/Labour, so best avoided, but the Conservatives probably believed that the outcome was certain so, in addition to a poor manifesto, little effort was made to attack/refute Labour’s and this probably contributed to the result.
Although her vote and share were impressive May only did half the job and, like the captain of the cricket team which failed to secure an easy victory, any dead parrot or similar analogies are completely appropriate.
Paul Goodman claims that:
“ConservativeHome has only found one Tory MP to date who says that May can lead the Party into the next election.”
And reading about an alleged Tory plot to skip ‘toxic’ generation and install younger face as next leader suggests that nettles are being grasped.
There is plenty of analysis and widespread acceptance that, to be polite, the campaign was poor and there are (many) lessons to be learnt.
Policies to deliver a majority are already being discussed, such as the Tories must tackle the housing crisis if they are to win back younger voters and the Tories must convince the young of the moral case for conservatism.
Incumbency is a double-edged sword, Brexit is uncertain, but you control the levers of power and can use them to pull the rug out from under the opposition. Parents getting begging letters from schools aren’t impressed by being told that funding is at “record levels” – sort it out and it’s one less stick with which you can be beaten.
Corbyn/Labour are ahead of May/Conservatives in the opinion polls but considering May didn’t achieve her objectives, was initially wrong-footed over Grenfell Tower and is, of course, on the way out, this is not unexpected.
Looking across the Commons Corbyn talks about forcing an early general election – despite being 56 seats behind, 60+ short of a majority and with the DUP, even without an agreement, likely to back the Conservatives to keep him out of No. 10 – and preaches to metropolitan Marxists whilst his sidekick impersonates a hate preacher.
It wasn’t surprising that when Chris Leslie said, “We shouldn’t pretend that this is a famous victory. It is good, as far as it’s gone, but it’s not going to be good enough,” he was denounced as “a sad, lonely bitter man”.
It’s also telling that a reason for avoiding major changes to the shadow cabinet was to not “break up a winning team”, then there are things that just leave you speechless such as the repeated claims that Jeremy Corbyn is actually PM and when the likes of Ian Lavery suggest that Labour might be a too broad church the conclusion is obvious.
Some accept that there are lessons for Labour, but this is largely parts of the left close to the real world, like Progress, that many Corbynistas see as closet, if not actual, Thatcherites. As Richard Angell wrote:
“While the general election confounded many expectations about Jeremy Corbyn, it also confirmed that ‘one more heave’ will not work and that to win, Labour must win over people who voted Tory.”
On June 8th the Conservatives received a nasty shock whilst Labour had a pleasant surprise.
Labour did better than expected meaning that the Conservatives didn’t get a majority.
Many in Labour contend that this was because of Corbyn and they’ll get a majority with the same leader and similar policies; full ahead both and left hand down a lot.
Most Conservatives believe that May wasn’t very good, the manifesto was poor and they underestimated Corbyn, so a new leader, better policies and not underestimating the opposition will deliver a majority.
Every politician, with the possible exception of the LDs, wants to believe that people vote for them rather than against their opponents. In 2010 the LDs became part of a coalition government and their support dropped. A certain amount went to UKIP, a switch from a europhile to a eurosceptic party, but this was because UKIP had replaced them as the anti-establishment party of protest.
During the campaign the Conservative lead reduced as Labour’s share increased. If most of this was because voters were attracted by Corbyn rather than turned off by May, Labour has nothing to worry about. If the opposite was the case next time Labour will be fighting the last election.
John Wall is a former member of the Conservatives
